Crude oil price war started domestic product oil back to 5 yuan?

Crude oil price war started domestic product oil back to 5 yuan?
The killing game among the three countries in the crude oil market of Russia, Russia and the United States caused the international crude oil to crash 31% in one day. The global stock market fell sharply. The OPEC negotiations broke down. The international crude oil hit the largest decline in nearly 30 years.  Brent crude oil plunged 31% at the opening on March 9 and then narrowed down by more than 20%, reaching a minimum of 31.02 US dollars / barrel, the largest decline since the United States launched the war in Iraq in January 1991.On one trading day of the Air Force, Brent crude oil has plummeted by 10%.At the same time, the Kuwaiti stock market suspended trading, the index fell 10%, and the Saudi stock market fell more than 8%.  In the stock market, on March 9, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower by 1.56%, the GEM index opened lower by nearly 2%.The oil sector led the decline.At the end of the close, the Shanghai index fell by more than 3%, the Shenzhen index, the GEM index fell by more than 4%, and 3234 stocks in both markets fell.  From the perspective of surrounding markets, the Asia-Pacific stock market closed down sharply across the board, and the Korea Composite Index fell by 4.19%, refreshing the lows since the end of August 2019; the Nikkei 225 index closed down by 5.07%, refreshing the lowest level since the beginning of January 2019; the Australian ASX200 index fell by 7.9%; New Zealand’s NZX50 index fell 2.94%.  The main European stock indexes fell sharply on Monday, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 7.5%, the German DAX index fell 7.4%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 8.3%, the Spanish IBEX35 index fell by 7.6%.The US stocks Dow Jones Industrial Index also fell sharply. As of March 6, the Dow closed down more than 250 points, once fell nearly 900 points, and the S & P 500 index closed down 1.7%, the Nasdaq closed down 1.87%.  However, the risk aversion sentiment helped boost gold.On March 9, spot gold once stood above the $ 1700 mark, with a maximum increase of 1.64%.  For reasons, on Friday, OPEC and Russia broke down and could not reach an agreement to further reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day.Last Saturday, Saudi Arabia cut prices and increased production to launch a “full-scale oil price war.”  Will oil prices remain low?Will the domestic refined oil be worth 5 yuan?Sauna and Yewang interviewed Jia Ruibin, director of Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, Zhong Jian, chief chief of Jinlianchuang Petroleum, and Qu Xinrong, senior research director of Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center.  1 What is the reason for the international oil price plunge?  Demand collapse, price bubble cut agreement conflicts within Jia Ruibin: Crude oil plunged this week, first of all due to the pressure caused by shrinking demand, and then, in order to protect themselves, various oil-producing countries broke through the past fragile production cut agreements, such as Saudi Arabia and other countriesHe even chose to increase production to protect his own fiscal revenue, and the price of international crude oil fell infrequently.  Zhong Jian: The reason for the current plunge is the failure to cut production and Saudi Arabia’s price cut after the meeting.This further shows that the price bubble caused by panic in the oil price has reached the moment of extreme expansion.Rather, it just means that this will be the moment when the bubble is about to burst, and the eve of the turnaround in the crash.  2 Game Concentrator: How will Saudi Arabia and Russia play?  The door to negotiations on production cuts is still open. Russia and Saudi Arabia need to bargain. Jia Ruibin: To the oil-producing countries, it may not be possible to solve the problem even if they want to reduce production.In general, Saudi Arabia has the lowest cost, followed by Iran and other countries, Russia is in the middle, and shale oil costs are higher.From the perspective of overall prices, shale oil is already at a significantly higher level, and countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are required to jointly reduce production to boost prices. However, for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, their massive production cuts will obviously lose revenue, but the beneficiariesIt is Russia, the United States and other countries, so this is not a wise choice.  Xinrong: The game of oil prices is mainly concentrated between Saudi Arabia and Russia.In fact, since the reduction of production in December 2018, Saudi Arabia has undertaken most of the production reduction share and lost a considerable part of the market. Then, Saudi Arabia ‘s appeal is mainly that Saudi Aramco can stabilize and the oil price remains at a certain level.  Russia is also a crude oil exporter. If it does not reduce production, Saudi Arabia cannot reduce its own output.So the reason why Russia is doing this may be to ask Saudi Arabia for more political chips.In fact, Russia has been considering the issue of production cuts, and has made preparations for oil prices to move towards $ 42 per barrel.But Russia is also concerned that the joint reduction in production with Saudi Arabia will allow the United States to take the biggest advantage.  Zhong Jian: For Saudi Arabia, before the completion of overseas stock listings, Saudi Arabia ‘s production cuts towards the OPEC alliance will continue, and it will strive to keep oil prices above $ 60 per barrel.During this period, the OPEC alliance still needs to exist; the political landscape obtained by Saudi Arabia through the alliance also needs to be exchanged for more contributions; to maintain the cooperation relationship of the OPEC production reduction alliance without breaking down, it is necessary to continue to tolerate Russia.Therefore, the door to negotiations on production cuts still needs to be open, there is a market satisfaction, and the formation of internally understood production cut plans is a high probability event.  For Russia, not completely refusing to reduce production before the meeting, but only conditionally reducing production.From the reports gradually revealed by foreign media, due to some temporary changes during the meeting, the differences between OPEC and Russia have expanded.  3 Is the decline in oil prices temporary or trending?  Different from the fundamentals of the relative plunge, oil prices may rebound in the second and third quarters. Jia Ruibin: In the medium term, the epidemic will eventually pass, and demand will gradually recover sooner or later, so the decline in oil prices is also temporary or excessively panic.  Xinrong: The price will fluctuate and fall, but it is still short-term and will not be trendy.Because of low oil prices, neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia can stand it, and US shale oil production will also decline. Therefore, transmission demand may resume in the 2-3 quarter, and oil prices will start to rebound.  Zhong Jian: This kind of extreme price decline (only $ 15 in two days) has a serious lack of fundamental support.This is different from the collapse of the oil price in 2018 that was caused by the outbreak of the US financial crisis and the serious liquidity of capital in the capital market. It is also different from the fall of the oil price in the second half of 2014.During this period, various financial capitals were forced to withdraw from the market including oil futures.Almost all of this plunge was caused by the panic caused by the failure to cut production and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts and preparations for heavy volume.  4 Is it a good thing for China, or a double-edged sword?  Double-edged sword: Lowering the cost of imports will also cause some upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to reduce.However, after the price of crude oil falls, it will lead to a simultaneous decline in the prices of commodities in the energy and chemical industry chains, and will lead to substantial substitutions in some upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.If crude oil prices remain low for a long time, it will obviously have a distorting impact on China’s petrochemical industry.Therefore, the rapid decline in energy prices is a double-edged sword for China.  Considering that crude oil prices will not remain at a low level for a long time, we recommend that the government appropriately increase crude oil reserves in the relative position of prices. These parts of production temporarily have difficulties in replacing subsidies or technical support for production enterprises to maintain the relative stability of the overall industry.  Xinrong: For China, it is definitely a good thing.China is the largest crude oil importer, with a 70% dependence on crude oil and a 45% dependence on natural gas. The reduction in crude oil and natural gas prices is definitely helpful to China’s cost control.  5 What is the impact on domestic refined oil prices?  The profit spread of oil refining companies that may reappear in the 5 yuan era may continue to widenSignificantly dropped.The price reduction is expected to exceed 500 yuan.If the market is fierce, the 5 yuan era may be reproduced.  Xinrong: As far as refined oil prices are concerned, according to the price adjustment regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, when the price of international crude oil is below US $ 40 per barrel, the price of refined oil will no longer be reduced with the price of international crude oil.This is equivalent to a low price for refined oil. For an oil refining enterprise, the profit spread will widen, which is also good for oil refining enterprises.If the oil price does not rebound, the next time the price adjustment enters the 5 yuan era is not a problem.  [Story]The twelve hour of the futures analyst on the morning of March 9, the futures are facing the most intense sell-off ever.As a hub of information for leaders, futures analysts are also experiencing the busiest day.  ”I haven’t been idle since last weekend,” Xia Dong (pseudonym), a crude oil futures analyst at an institution, told reporters that the most done to customers who have been stocking up front is “comfort.”From 8 o’clock yesterday to evening, there were two conference calls, and 7 or 8 customers asked on WeChat.  ”The actual market has already judged that the price of crude oil has plummeted.”Xia Dong warned of the risk of a sharp drop in crude oil prices in a report that was expected to be released at 8:20, but unexpectedly, the market opened at 8 o’clock and fell all the way, falling below $ 35 / barrel.”  In the next 8 hours of conference call and WeChat communication, Xia Dong felt the most deeply than the serious differentiation of customer emotions: the early stock is less, concentrated on how to copy the bottom, and the more early stock is quite compensated.  Zhen Xuanfei (pseudonym), the director of a futures research institute, told reporters that on weekends, he knew that Monday was definitely not calm, and he prepared materials one by one from the weekend. After getting up at 7 in the morning, he was “busy to take off” and needed to arrange market research, Must inevitably dock customers.  ”I see people’s hearts in a long time, and see crude oil in a long time.”In the end, Zhen Fei made such a circle of friends himself.  Xi Jiarui, a senior analyst at Jinlianchuang Crude Oil, got up 20 minutes earlier than before because he knew he would be extremely busy today.”The customer just took 100 billion worth of goods and asked me whether to throw it.”Xi Jiarui told reporters that just after 8 o’clock on the morning of March 9, when he saw the price of crude oil plummeting, his immediate feeling was” as expected. “Compared to the past, today she got up 20 minutes earlier.  As a crude oil analyst, she has been paying attention to the progress of the OPEC meeting. “On March 6, the OPEC negotiation boots landed and she already thought of today’s situation.”But the market reaction made her exceed expectations.””From 8 o’clock, my mobile phone, landline, WeChat, QQ, Dingding are all full, and all chat tools have not stopped.”What impressed her most was the call from a customer at noon, which made her realize that the customer was under extraordinary pressure,” he said. He just took 100 million of the goods on March 8, and now the crude oil has fallen like this, shouldn’t it come out?Or when is it appropriate to save?”Billion-dollar business like this is not too common. After 5 o’clock, the number of telephones is gradually reduced, and I have time to talk about this” thrilling “day.  This edition is written / sauna, night net Zhang Shuxin Zhang Siyuan

Back To Top